![]() My recipe for a good forecaster is two parts historian blended with one part technologist served over three cubes of epistemic humility garnished with plenty of skin in the game. The future contains more possibilities than the past, but that means that it at least contains all the possibilities of the past so understanding those is a pretty good starting point. However, it is all the data that we have. As Vonnegut said, “History is merely a list of surprises, It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again.” All that means is that we don’t know what the future holds, but we know it won’t look exactly like the past. ![]() ![]() ![]() It is merely all the data because history is a non-ergodic process. ![]()
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